Estimating the Probability of Close Approaches Generated by an In-Orbit Fragmentation via Monte Carlo-Based Approach
Yeerang Lim, Camilla Colombo
Abstract. Advanced Monte Carlo-based approaches are investigated for conjunction assessment with a breakup event, namely Line Sampling and Subset Simulation, which enable to detect the same extent of probability with fewer samples. The proposed approaches are applied to a hypothetical fragmentation and compared with the standard Monte Carlo approach.
Keywords
Probability Estimation, Conjunction Assessment (CA), Monte Carlo Simulation, Line Sampling (LS), Subset Simulation (SS)
Published online 7/20/2026, 6 pages
Copyright © 2026 by the author(s)
Published under license by Materials Research Forum LLC., Millersville PA, USA
Citation: Yeerang Lim, Camilla Colombo, Estimating the Probability of Close Approaches Generated by an In-Orbit Fragmentation via Monte Carlo-Based Approach, Materials Research Proceedings, Vol. 69, pp 948-953, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21741/9781644904251-167
The article was published as article 167 of the book CEAS – AIDAA Conference 2025
Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
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