Integrated assessment of CO₂ and non-CO₂ climate impacts for Emirates airline using the AeroSCOPE–AeroMAPS framework
Mohammed ALQUDAH, Adham SARHAN, Alessandro GARDI
Abstract. Aviation is a growing contributor to climate change, responsible for 2.5% of the global CO₂ emissions [1] and 3.5% of total effective radiative forcing (ERF) [1,2], emphasizing the need for detailed airline-level assessments and scenario analysis. This study assesses Emirates Airline greenhouse impacts using the coupled AeroSCOPE–AeroMAPS framework [3]. In AeroSCOPE, parameters such as fleet composition, available seat kilometers (ASK), mission profiles, Load Factor (LF) and compound annual growth (CAGR) are defined and used as inputs to AeroMAPS for long-term scenario analysis of energy demand and emissions. CO₂ and non-CO₂ effects are quantified relative to 2019 [3], with CO₂ intensity quantified in grams per revenue passenger kilometer (RPK). Non-CO₂ impacts are derived from emission indices and converted to ERF using literature-based coefficients, while contrail cirrus contribution to ERF is represented by a per-distance factor applied to annual flight distance [1,2]. The scenario specified in the study, which spans a 40-year time horizon (2020-2060), integrates operational efficiency gains and gradual SAF adoption alongside accelerated fleet renewal. Results indicate that while Emirates’ traffic volumes (RPK, LF, ASK) continues to increase steadily, CO₂ intensity per RPK and total CO₂ emissions (including offsets) decline to 15.0 MtCO₂ and 19 gCO2/RPK in 2060, from 35.1 MtCO₂ and 101gCO2/RPK in 2019, respectively. However, total ERF increases slightly to 4.1 mW/m² by 2060, with CO₂ becoming the dominant contributor due to its persistent radiative effect and the diminishing impact of contrails following mitigation. These findings indicate that while operational and fuel-based levers can substantially reduce emissions intensity, achieving net climate neutral-growth will require rapid advancements in propulsion systems, fuel production capacity, and coordinated global policy to address aviation’s residual climate impact.
Keywords
Aviation Decarbonization, Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF), Contrail Cirrus, RPK/ASK Metrics
Published online 6/20/2026, 8 pages
Copyright © 2026 by the author(s)
Published under license by Materials Research Forum LLC., Millersville PA, USA
Citation: Mohammed ALQUDAH, Adham SARHAN, Alessandro GARDI, Integrated assessment of CO₂ and non-CO₂ climate impacts for Emirates airline using the AeroSCOPE–AeroMAPS framework, Materials Research Proceedings, Vol. 67, pp 509-516, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21741/9781644904176-67
The article was published as article 67 of the book Climate Action and Sustainability
Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
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