Assessing the Impact of the Electricity Mix on Economic Growth in Morocco: An ARDL Approach
Mohammed AKNOUCH, Halima OUFDOU
Abstract. This article examines the impact of the electricity mix on economic growth in Morocco between 1990 and 2023. The application of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model shows a stable long-term relationship between fossil fuels and renewable energy used in electricity generation and GDP. In the long-run, fossil fuels have a sustained positive effect of 0.334, while renewable energy sources have an impact of 0.070, indicating that investments in clean energy lead to steady economic benefits over time. In the short-term, both electricity sources show positive effects with, coefficients of 0.206 for fossil fuels and 0.066 for renewable energy. However, these effects vary depending on the lags, reflecting the fact that electricity production in Morocco remains dependent on fossil fuels with an immediate opening to renewable energy. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) likewise emerges as a significant driver of economic performance, with elasticities of 0.470 in the long-run and 0.278 in the short-run, due to investments in infrastructure and production capacity. The error correction term (ECM= -0.621), reveals that 62% short-term imbalances are corrected annually, confirming the ability of Morocco to restore long-run equilibrium. The model has a high explanatory power (R² = 0.998; adjusted R² = 0.996). These results highlight the need to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy and consolidate energy policies in line with SDGs 7 and 8.
Keywords
Electricity Mix, Energy Transition, Economic Growth, Morocco, ARDL Model
Published online 4/25/2026, 9 pages
Copyright © 2026 by the author(s)
Published under license by Materials Research Forum LLC., Millersville PA, USA
Citation: Mohammed AKNOUCH, Halima OUFDOU, Assessing the Impact of the Electricity Mix on Economic Growth in Morocco: An ARDL Approach, Materials Research Proceedings, Vol. 64, pp 1129-1137, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21741/9781644904091-139
The article was published as article 139 of the book Energy Futures
Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
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