The Role of Energy Efficiency in Shaping Saudi Arabia’s Sustainable Energy Future: Evidence from LEAP Modelling
Muhammad SHAHID, Amjad ALI, Sikandar Abdul QADIR, Md. Tasbirul ISLAM, Kamran ALI, Farrukh BAIG, Farhan ULLAH
Abstract. Electricity demand in Saudi Arabia is rising with population and income growth, yet the pace at which it rises depends strongly on demand-side choices. We developed a Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) service-area model using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). The model projected electricity demand, generation, system costs, and CO₂ emissions under four pathways to 2040: a Reference Scenario (RS), a High Growth Scenario (HGS), and two efficiency-oriented pathways: the Demand Management and Energy Efficiency Based Reference Scenario (DMEERS) and the Demand Management and Energy Efficiency Based High Growth Scenario (DMEEHGS). The model is calibrated to SEC statistics for 2018–2022 and retains Marafiq loads outside the scope. In 2040, demand reaches 480.6 TWh (RS) and 607.8 TWh (HGS); efficiency policies hold this to 432.5 TWh (DMEERS) and 547.0 TWh (DMEEHGS). These reductions lower generation needs and system costs. Environmental emissions fall by 8–15% compared with the baselines. The residential sector continues to use the most electricity. This emphasises how crucial it is to upgrade building insulation and appliances. Equal amounts of thermal and renewable energy are planned for Vision 2030. Our findings demonstrate that by postponing new thermal capacity and facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources, demand-side strategies can supplement supply expansion.
Keywords
Sustainable Energy Transition, Power Sector Planning, Carbon Emissions Assessment, Energy Efficiency, Demand Management
Published online 4/25/2026, 8 pages
Copyright © 2026 by the author(s)
Published under license by Materials Research Forum LLC., Millersville PA, USA
Citation: Muhammad SHAHID, Amjad ALI, Sikandar Abdul QADIR, Md. Tasbirul ISLAM, Kamran ALI, Farrukh BAIG, Farhan ULLAH, The Role of Energy Efficiency in Shaping Saudi Arabia’s Sustainable Energy Future: Evidence from LEAP Modelling, Materials Research Proceedings, Vol. 64, pp 849-856, 2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21741/9781644904091-105
The article was published as article 105 of the book Energy Futures
Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
References
[1] SERA, Annual Statistical Booklet for Electricity 2022, W.a.E.R. Authority, Editor. 2022, Saudi Electricity Regulatory Authority: King Fahd National Library Publication.
[2] KSA, Saudi Arabia, Vision 2030, A Story of Transformation, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
[3] Ediger, V.Ş. and H. Tatlıdil, Forecasting the primary energy demand in Turkey and analysis of cyclic patterns. Energy Conversion and Management, 2002. 43(4): p. 473. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0196-8904(01)00033-4
[4] Chen W, W.Z., Study on china’s future sustainable energy development strategy using MARKEL model, in INIS. 2001: China.
[5] Fairuz, S.M.C., et al., Long term strategy for electricity generation in Peninsular Malaysia – Analysis of cost and carbon footprint using MESSAGE. Energy Policy, 2013. 62: p. 493-502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.08.005
[6] Alharbi, A.M. and M. Abdulwahab. Best fit Energy Market Model for Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. in European Modelling Symposium (EMS). 2016. https://doi.org/10.1109/EMS.2016.033
[7] Alnatheer, O., The potential contribution of renewable energy to electricity supply in Saudi Arabia. Energy Policy, 2005. 33(18): p. 2298-2312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2003.12.013
[8] Shahid, M., et al., Electricity supply pathways based on renewable resources: A sustainable energy future for Pakistan. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020. 263: p. 121511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121511
[9] Heap, C., LEAP, is a powerful, versatile software system for climate change mitigation assessment developed at SEI US. 2018. Available: https://www.sei.org/projects-and-tools/tools/leap-long-range-energy-alternatives-planning-system/
[10] WB. Electric power transmission and distribution losses (% of output) – Saudi Arabia. 2018. [Accessed 17 July 2024]; Available from: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS?end=2014&locations=SA&start=1996.
