Evolutionary predictive model of the space debris environment

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Evolutionary predictive model of the space debris environment

Wiebke Retagne, Lorenzo Giudici, Camilla Colombo

Abstract. In recent years, the exponential growth of space debris has become evident. To mitigate debris problem, a precise model for predicting the space debris environment is necessary. This research project tackles this challenge of space debris modelling, through adopting the continuum approach. In the continuum approach a space debris cloud is treated as a fluid. As a novel aspect, the model will include a detailed uncertainty analysis. The challenge here is to find a unified approach to deal with the different uncertainty sources. The analysis will help to identify the largest uncertainty sources and will aid in developing a more precise model. To find a balance between robustness and computational time high performance computing will be employed. Furthermore, the effect of mitigation measures and newly launched missions will be investigated through the combination of historical data with economic forecasting methods, making it possible to make informed decisions for sustainable space operations.

Keywords
Space Safety, Space Debris Modelling, Uncertainty Quantification, Density Approach

Published online 6/1/2024, 5 pages
Copyright © 2024 by the author(s)
Published under license by Materials Research Forum LLC., Millersville PA, USA

Citation: Wiebke Retagne, Lorenzo Giudici, Camilla Colombo, Evolutionary predictive model of the space debris environment, Materials Research Proceedings, Vol. 42, pp 137-141, 2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21741/9781644903193-30

The article was published as article 30 of the book Aerospace Science and Engineering

Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.

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