The Ex Ante Risk Assessment in the Project in Interval Analysis Description

The Ex Ante Risk Assessment in the Project in Interval Analysis Description

KOZIEN Ewa and KOZIEN Marek

Abstract. Ongoing enterprise projects often have a unique and unrepeatable character. Referring to future solutions, their results may be different from their assumptions and aims. The uncertainty and its description is usually the main problem in quantitative risk estimation goals. Mathematical methods for taking into account the impact of uncertainty are based on the following attempts: deterministic with elements of statistical analysis, stochastic, using fuzzy logic and using interval computations. In risk analysis, the following areas of risks are usually taken into account: project milieu, client and contract, suppliers, maturity of the organization, project characteristics and project team. The aim of the paper is the ex ante risk assessment of the project based on six partial risks specified in the scope of project milieu (client, terms and conditions of the contract, suppliers, maturity of an organization, scope of the project, project team) with application of the interval analysis arithmetic for description of uncertainty.

Keywords
Interval Analysis, Risk Assessment, Project

Published online , 5 pages
Copyright © 2020 by the author(s)
Published under license by Materials Research Forum LLC., Millersville PA, USA

Citation: KOZIEN Ewa and KOZIEN Marek, The Ex Ante Risk Assessment in the Project in Interval Analysis Description, Materials Research Proceedings, Vol. 17, pp 31-35, 2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21741/9781644901038-5

The article was published as article 5 of the book Terotechnology XI

Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.

References
[1] K. Bradley, The basic properties of the PRINCE2™ methodology, Warszawa, Centrum Rozwiazan Menadzerskich, 2003.
[2] E. Kozien, Using the risk-list method for risk-assessment in the project, in: M. Cingula, D. Rhein, M. Machrafi (eds.), Economic and Social Development (Book of Proceedings), 31st International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development, Varazdin Development and Entrepreneurship Agency, Varazdin, 2018, 152-158.
[3] E. Kozien, M.S. Kozien, Ex-ante risk estimation in the project, System Safety: Human-Technical Facility-Environment 1 (1) (2019) 708-715. https://doi.org/10.2478/czoto-2019-0090
[4] E. Kozien, Identification of stage phase growth in the checklist method using different statistical parameters, in: Proc. 20th Int. Sci. Conf. Economic and Social Development, Varazdin, Varazdin Development and Entrepreneurship Agency, 2017, 538-545.
[5] J. Pietraszek, A. Szczotok, M. Kolomycki, N. Radek, E. Kozien, Non-parametric assessment of the uncertainty in the analysis of the airfoil blade traces, in: METAL 2017: 26th Int. Conf. on Metallurgy and Materials, Tanger Ltd., Ostrava, 2017, 1412-1418.
[6] E. Kozien, M.S. Kozien, Using the fuzzy logic description for the ex ante risk assessment in the project, in: Proc. 35th Int. Sci. Conf. on Economic and Social Development, Varazdin, Varazdin Development and Entrepreneurship Agency, 2018, 224-231.
[7] J. Pietraszek, A. Sobczyk, E. Skrzypczak-Pietraszek, M. Kolomycki, The fuzzy interpretation of the statistical test for irregular data, Technical Transactions 113 (14) (2016) 119-126.
[8] G. Alefeld, J. Herzberger, Introduction to interval computations, New York, Academic Press, 1983.
[9] M.S. Kozien, D. Smolarski, Choosing of the values of dynamic damper with application of interval arithmetic, Technical Transactions 114 (2) (2011) 69-74.
[10] E. Kozien, M.S. Kozien, Interval analysis as a method of measurement of uncertainity in the check-list method applied to identification of stage phase in companies, in: Proc. 26th Int. Sci. Conf. on Economic and Social Development, Varazdin, Varazdin Development and Entrepreneurship Agency, 2017, 210-215.
[11] L. J. Orman, Boiling heat transfer on single phosphor bronze and copper mesh microstructures. EPJ Web of Conf. 67 (2014) art. 02087. https://doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/20146702087
[12] M. Domagala, H. Momein, J. Domagala-Fabis, G. Filo, D. Kwiatkowski, Simulation of cavitation erosion in a hydraulic valve. Materials Research Proceedings 5 (2018) 1-6.
[13] M. Domagala, H. Momein, J. Domagala-Fabis, G. Filo, M. Krawczyk, J. Rajda, Simulation of particle erosion in a hydraulic valve. Materials Research Proceedings 5 (2018) 17-24.
[14] D. Przestacki, M. Kuklinski, A. Bartkowska, Influence of laser heat treatment on microstructure and properties of surface layer of Waspaloy aimed for laser-assisted machining. Int. J. Adv. Manuf. Technol. 93 (2017) 3111-3123. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-017-0775-2
[15] R. Skulski, P. Wawrzala, J. Korzekwa, M. Szymonik, The electrical conductivity of PMN-PT ceramics. Arch. Metall. Mater. 54 (2009) 935-941.
[16] R. Ulewicz, P. Szataniak, F. Novy, Fatigue properties of wear resistant martensitic steel. METAL 2014: 23rd Int. Conf. on Metallurgy and Materials. Ostrava, TANGER (2014) 784-789.
[17] D. Klimecka-Tatar, Electrochemical characteristics of titanium for dental implants in case of the electroless surface modification. Arch. Metall. Mater. 61 (2016) 923-26. https://doi.org/10.1515/amm-2016-0156
[18] E. Skrzypczak-Pietraszek, J. Pietraszek, Phenolic acids in in vitro cultures of Exacum affine Balf. f. Acta Biol. Crac. Ser. Bot. 51 (2009) 62-62.
[19] E. Skrzypczak-Pietraszek, I. Kwiecien, A. Goldyn, J. Pietraszek, HPLC-DAD analysis of arbutin produced from hydroquinone in a biotransformation process in Origanum majorana L. shoot culture. Phytochemistry Letters 20 (2017) 443-448. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phytol.2017.01.009
[20] A. Gadek-Moszczak, J. Pietaszek, B. Jasiewicz, S. Sikorska, L. Wojnar, The Bootstrap Approach to the Comparison of Two Methods Applied to the Evaluation of the Growth Index in the Analysis of the Digital X-ray Image of a Bone Regenerate. New Trends in Comp. Collective Intell. 572 (2015) 127-136. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-10774-5_12
[21] A. Pacana, K. Czerwinska, R. Dwornicka, Analysis of non-compliance for the cast of the industrial robot basis, METAL 2019 28th Int. Conf. on Metallurgy and Materials (2019), Ostrava, Tanger 644-650. https://doi.org/10.37904/metal.2019.869
[22] S.B. Hertz, Risk analysis in capital investment, Harvard Business Review 58 (5) (1979) 169-171.
[23] F. Knight, Risk, Uncertainty and profit, New York, Dover Publication Inc., 2006.
[24] A. De Meyer, Ch. Loch, M. Pich, Managing project uncertainty. From variation to chaos, MIT Sloan Management Review 43 (2) (2002) 60-67.